May 24, 2013

Spending, not guns, on our minds

barack_obama_gun_control_ap_328A funny thing happened to President Obama on his way to increasing federal regulation of firearms. Members of Congress noticed that gun control wasn’t a top priority for their constituents and handed the President his first major legislative loss.

Instead, Americans are still more concerned about the economy and the state of our fiscal house. From the “Editor-in-chief” over at Gallup:

Only 4% of Americans say that gun violence or gun issues constitute the most important problem facing the country today, based on our April 4-7 monthly update of the “most important problem” measure. This puts guns in the same 4% category as immigration issues, education, and the situation with North Korea.

To be clear, the 4% of Americans for whom gun violence is a top issue were no where to be found before Newport, Connecticut happened. Prior to the Sandy Hook massacre, gun violence didn’t register on the scale.

At all.

Instead, Americans’ top five issues are, in order:

  1. The economy (in general)
  2. Unemployment/jobs
  3. Dissatisfaction with government  (whatever this means)
  4. Federal budget deficit/federal debt, and
  5. Healthcare (which is declining in importance over the last three months)

You can’t see gun violence appear in the list for another four rows, and then it’s tied with worry about threats from North Korea, a country that is begging Mongolia to provide food aid for its starving people. The drug lords of Juarez, Mexico pose a greater threat to the United States.  (See the full chart below.)Gallup Issues

With worries about the economy, our ability to maintain a standard of living, provide for ourselves, and so on, weighing on us, why should anyone, let alone Obama who also has these polling numbers, be surprised that Congress, with lower approval ratings than the President, has no fear about thumbing their collective noses at his push to require universal background checks?

It’s still the economy, stupid. And it will be until we change how we’ve been doing things.

Not that I want to rely upon Hollywood for an example, or anything, but I’m going to do just that. I’ve been watching Andrew Sorkin’s West Wing lately, set in the bright years of the 1990s (or so). Repeatedly I hear the same talking points and arguments that are being made–today–by liberals and Democrats in favor of their pet programs and policies.  Whether it’s for gun control, expansion of governments role in healthcare, fiscal and tax policy, or the first amendment, the arguments have not changed.

The difference is that elected officials, all too often, act like our collective memory is too short to remember what they are doing now has been done before, has been said before, and, well, got us into the mess we’re in now. But does anyone remember? Are we going to keep doing the same thing and expect different results?

I can’t claim to understand the arcane workings of federal programs, but I do know the pinch on my pocketbook, on my family, when I look at my pay stub and the withholdings there. I do see the taxes I pay at the fuel pump when I look at my receipt. I do recognize how much cheaper and easier it is to buy a book online from Amazon compared to Barnes and Nobles’ brick and mortar and what will happen if the government starts taxing that purchase. I do see how difficult it is to buy a home, still, five years after the housing market collapsed, largely because of governmental meddling in the housing market. And I know that I am not in the minority–Americans think about the price of a home, of a car (remember what “cash for clunkers” did to all those perfectly fine used cars that we could still be driving?), of a meal, of a vacation…or the lack thereof.

And that’s on my mind more than is gun violence. Stop being so surprised and peeved that you didn’t get your way, Mr. President. It’s government for, by and of the people–and the people are concerned about the economy.


Publius Online is participating in the Blogging from A to Z Challenge, a month-long quest to post every day (I know…I’ve missed a few days). Each day should match a letter of the alphabet. Today is the letter S, as in Spending.

 Related articles

C is for Comeback America by David Walker

unemployment-rate

The national unemployment rate.

Sometimes, I’m a cynic.

For example, I don’t trust that Democrats care as much about the Second Amendment and gun regulation, immigration reform, or gay marriage as they say (heck, I’m not even sure Republicans care as much as they say, either, but that’s another post). I think they’re, largely, cherry picking issues that they can use to pander to various demographic groups and distract from the relatively unexciting business of a slow economy which, by virtue of President Obama’s reelection, they own.  In spite of what political left may argue, little has improved in the economy since the election last year. Unemployment nationally still hovers between 7.9 and 7.7%, economic growth slowed at the end of last year, and personal income is down 2.2% this year.

So why aren’t we talking about economic growth and how to bring about an economic “comeback” for America?

A couple years back, I read an interesting book by David Walker, former Comptroller of the United States. I don’t necessarily agree with everything in it, but I think it can add to the conversation on what needs to be addressed to move our country into a more competitive position than slow growth and stagnant personal incomes.


 

Comeback America

Comeback America: Turning the Country Around and Restoring Fiscal Responsibility by David M. Walker

As the former comptroller general of the United States, Walker knows a little about the fiscal workings of the modern federal government. For fifteen years, he served under both Republican and Democratic presidents, from Reagan to Clinton to the Bushes, and had a unique opportunity to call into question the decisions that have lead to our current fiscal woes. And in Comeback America, he doesn’t hold back.  We are a great country, but we are putting ourselves in a difficult position:

We live in a great and resilient nation. For all of our problems, the United States remains a global superpower and a beacon of liberty for people around the world. We have much to be proud of and thankful for. But I am here to tell you that if we don’t find a way to get spending under control, we will put our nation’s economy and international standing at risk and bequeath to our children a world of severely diminished opportunities.

It’s not too late. But we had better act soon.

After opening the book with describing our current fiscal problems–looking at the America of 2030 if we continue our current trajectory, examining principles from our history, and spelling out the challenges that President Obama faced as he came into office–Walker lays out his recommendations in each major area of federal spending in the succeeding chapters.

Walker skips right over earmarks and discretionary spending, which account for only a very small percentage of our federal budget, and goes right to the heart of  the problem: entitlements, insufficient tax revenues, spending deficits, Defense Department inefficiency, and systemic problems. Each gets a chapter that provides context, history, and recommendations.

Beyond easy accessibility, perhaps the most important reason you should read this book is the lack of partisan taint. His approach, and recommendations, are nonpartisan, pragmatic, and worthy of consideration.  He

David Walker

approaches the problems with one consideration–what is right for America and Americans?

Walker calls for not only the reform of entitlements, review and oversight of inefficiencies in several–large–areas of government, and the reform of the tax code, but also for changes in our very elective processes and to the constitution. It isn’t enough to just change policies–we also need to change the systemic problems with how we got here and make it difficult to get here again.

In the end, Walker makes a compelling case for, in his words, not a “small government or a big government[,]” but an effective government–one that is fiscally responsible, focuses on the future, and looks out for the collective best interest of America and Americans rather than the narrow agendas of various special interests.

As one friend of mine has been known to observe–both parties are glad to spend, as long as it on the program that benefits its constituency. The right will spend on national security, and the left will spend on social programs. Both are spending, just not on the same thing. Indeed, fiscal responsibility is a claim that neither elected major national party can claim–at least not in recent memory or with any measure of integrity.

Despite the current difficulties, exacerbated by the pop of the housing bubble and the subsequent recession, America can “comeback.” Walker’s book is full of great ideas and suggestions to see that that happens. I recommend you pick up a copy soon. You might find yourself asking different questions of your elected representatives than their position on immigration. 


Publius Online is participating in the Blogging from A to Z Challenge, a month long quest to post every day. Each day should match a corresponding letter of the alphabet. Today is C.

April Fools or About Face?

 

Obama Proclaims April the Month to Teach Young People ‘How to Budget Responsibly’   CNS News

Today is April first, commonly called April Fools day, so like my good friend Shannon warns, “Trust no one.”

Given the inclination of the press to play along, occasionally throwing out outlandish headlines that couldn’t possibly be true, there still comes this, that sounds like it should be a joke, but really, is more likely just bad timing: the White House proclaims that April is “National Financial Capability Month.”

Seriously. Here’s a link to it if you aren’t buying it. It’s neither an about-face of an administration that has shown more interest in raising taxes than in balancing its budgets or an April Fools’ joke.

Never mind that unemployment is hovering around 7.8% (as it has for the last few years), making “financial capability” difficult for many families (or at least 7.8% of the working population).

Never mind that reports seem to indicate that unemployment might be higher than we think because of the number of people on disability payments instead of welfare or unemployment assistance.

No, rather let’s focus on helping young people with what the White House terms ” learning how to budget responsibly to saving for college, starting a business, or opening a retirement account.” Never mind that the Obama Administration hasn’t submitted a budget to Congress on time in three years, that Obama Administration budgets have increased the national debt by $53,377 per household, and that the President has stated that he has no intention of submitting  a budget that balances any time soon.

Never mind all that.

It’s a classic case of ‘do what I say, not what I do.’ And it’s no April Fools joke.

I am sure the do-gooders in the White House mean well, but saying one thing and doing another hurts their credibility. You can’t ask to raise taxes and increase spending on one hand and tell Americans you are an authority on financial management on the other. If the Obama White House wants to make a difference in the national economy and provide for real “financial capability,” they will more seriously consider the heavy weight that out of control entitlement cost growth is having on the federal budget, as well as the very real tax, especially on the young, that the Affordable Care Act (aka “Obamacare”) weighs on working Americans. You cannot provide for the poor by tearing down the working, but that’s exactly what the Obama Administration’s policies–especially Obamacare–will do.


This month, Publius Online is participating in Blogging from A to Z, a month long quest to post every day. Each day should match a letter of the alphabet. Since today is the first day of April, that letter is A. Tomorrow will be B, and so on.

To filibuster or not to filibuster…

Paul Rand filibuster

When is a filibuster an effective tool to raise public awareness? And when is it the anti-democratic tool of the minority to stop legislation it opposes?


A couple weeks ago, Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky took to the Senate floor to speak against the nomination of John Brennan as head of the CIA because Paul opposed the Obama Administration’s drone policy, largely crafted by Brennan. Previous to Paul’s filibuster, Gallup found that only 26% of Americans opposed using drones to kill Americans abroad. After, that number swung dramatically, doubling to 52% opposed.

With the shift in public opinion to bolster him, Paul called the filibuster a victory (though some question whether he overstates his success). The same Gallup poll also noted that less than half of Americans are following the news about drones “closely.”

In other words, we’re busy people, and the Obama Administration’s drone policy is just one more thing to follow. Hence, the success of Rand’s filibuster. It raised an otherwise marginal issue to the level of our attention.

Could it work again?

(Left to Right): Senator Rand Paul, Senator Michael Lee, and Senator Ted Cruz

(Left to Right): Senator Rand Paul, Senator Michael Lee, and Senator Ted Cruz

Senators Michael Lee of Utah, Ted Cruz of Texas, and, of course, Paul, have indicated that while they are not going to the Senate floor to talk about the Second Amendment in another speaking filibuster, they will, in a “silent” filibuster require a sixty-vote majority to move any gun regulation to a vote. In a statement this morning, Lee warned that any attempts by the administration to push gun controls through Congress will see another speaking filibuster from the Senate floor.

[T]his debate is about more than magazine clips and pistol grips. It is about the purpose of the Second Amendment and why our constitutionally protected right to self-defense is an essential part of self-government. Any legislation that would restrict our basic right to self-defense deserves robust and open debate.  Requiring a 60-vote threshold helps ensure that we have that debate rather than skipping directly to the back room deals, horse trading, and business-as-usual politics that typifies the way Congress passes legislation today.

The White House does not relish the prospect of having legislation, even legislation that probably won’t pass, not receive a vote on the floor. White House Press Secretary Jay Carney said that

“Filibusters of efforts to move forward with common-sense measures to reduce gun violence would be unfortunate. We have worked with Congress, with the Senate, to try to advance the elements of the president’s plan that require legislative action and these again are common-sense measures.”

Calling it ‘unfortunate’ is , as Kyle Becker put it, akin to “how a guy who owes a loan shark ten grand falls down a flight of stairs and that is ‘unfortunate.’”

While I agree with Lee that the debate on the Second Amendment needs to happen prior to the passage of any gun control bill, I don’t know that a procedural filibuster, by itself, pushes the debate onto the public sphere the way he seems to want. Speaking filibusters, like Paul’s earlier this month, occur with enough infrequency that their impact is more significant.

On the other hand, procedural filibusters happen frequently enough that many from both parties have considered doing away with them. It’s a procedural move that allows a minority to block majority action without a three-fifths majority override.  In contrast to the speaking filibuster that lays out the arguments dramatically for the world to watch and consider, the silent filibuster might do more damage than good because it appears to be anti-democratic and does not provide any argument for the public to consider.

In any respect, the debate on how we regulate guns is important and should occur. The President’s bully pulpit wields a disproportionate impact on public opinion, and a speaking filibuster as a means of communicating to the American public may be just what is necessary to return the Senate to its place as an effect check on the power of the presidency.

TANSTAAFL: Obamacare turns three and the costs continue to tally [Infographic]

English: Barack Obama signing the Patient Prot...

This week in TANSTAAFL news: it’s  Obamacare‘s third anniversary, and, as then Speaker Nancy Pelosi famously said, we had to pass it to find out what’s in it.

We’re still trying to find out what’s in it. Today, for your pleasure, a small infographic on the costs that have come with the ironically named Affordable Care Act.


 

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“There ain’t no such thing as a free lunch,” said Robert Heinlein. It’s as true today as it was fifty years ago. Someday, the piper’s going to come calling, and the cost may be more than we can afford. What then?

 

Obama would rather campaign than govern [KSL]

The following is an op-ed that I wrote and KSL published on its site on March 5, 2013.


 

25055047Of all the political crises coming out of Washington, D.C., in recent years, few demonstrate the dismal state of things like the sequester. The crisis we face is not just the dramatic growth of federal spending, but the inability of Democrats and Republicans in Washington to work together to figure out how to control it.

Worse, it appears President Barack Obama has decided to use the issue to hit Republicans. Instead of working with the GOP to find a solution, Obama instead has hit the campaign trail again to help his party re-take control of Congress in 2014. If Americans don’t understand the budget and sequestration, he will manufacture a crisis and turn it against Republicans.

 Campaigning, not Governing

The president has, at best, misinformed the American public about what the automatic budget cuts, referred to as the sequester, mean. At worst, he has taken advantage of an issue the public does not understand to create a faux crisis. Look at those Republicans in Congress, he says. “What I can’t do is force Congress to do the right thing,” he said last week. “The American people may have the capacity to do that.”

And by “that,” he means restore Democratic control of Congress. So, rather than meet with Congressional leaders in the weeks leading up to the beginning of the sequester on March 1, Obama instead hit the campaign trail.

According to the The Washington Post, it matches a strategy decision made by Obama shortly after his re-election in 2012 to work to put Nancy Pelosi back as speaker of the House. If the president can’t persuade Republicans to his way of thinking, he’ll campaign to replace them.

As Ed Rogers put it in The Washington Post, “The president is most confident and fulfilled as a campaigner. He would rather travel the country and lead the permanent campaign, relying on his relative personal appeal, than take responsibility and govern.” For better or worse, the president has decided that if he cannot impose his will on Congress, he will try to persuade the American people to give him a majority in 2014.

Along with the campaigning has come a torrent of misinformation about the budget cuts that has journalists cringing.

  • In a news conference Friday, President Obama said that janitors and security guards at the Capitol would get a pay cut. On the contrary, according to the Architect for the Capitol, which employs the janitors, Obama’s remarks are “not true.” The Washington Post, fact checking the president, gave him four Pinocchios, which is akin to saying his pants are on fire. Nothing in his statement was even close to being correct, reported the Post.
  • Secretary of Education Arne Duncan went on to CBS’ “Face the Nation” Feb. 24 to scare people with images of 40,000 teachers getting pink slips and children being squished into overcrowded classrooms. Duncan repeated this claim three times. Not so fast, said The Washington Post. The Department of Education couldn’t produce the name of a single school that was sending out pink slips. Another false claim from the Obama Administration, the Post says.
  • Secretary of Health and Human Services Kathleen Sebelius threatened in a letter that 70,000 children would lose access to Head Start. The Washington Post balked at that figure, too.

If Americans didn’t understand what sequester meant before Obama took to the campaign trail, we understood even less after.

 The Elephant in the Room

This isn’t to say that Republicans haven’t done their part to spin sequester. Republicans in Congress regularly argue that the cuts to the budget are only 2.5 percent of the federal budget. This ignores the fact that programs like Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security and food stamps are largely untouched by the sequester, making the impact on other areas of the budget much more substantial. For example, defense spending was hit hard with a 13 percent cut to its budget. (Not that the budget of the Department of Defense couldn’t use a good look. For example, why do we still have military bases in Germany and Japan? Didn’t World War II end in 1945?)

Behind all of the spin and hot air, few Republicans and almost no Democrats in Washington are willing to address the elephant in the room: the cuts from sequestration don’t touch the major causes of U.S. spending growth. Faced with growing costs of health care, as well as the expensive new benefits endowed by the Affordable Care Act, the costs of America’s entitlements will continue to grow — unchecked by the sequester.

While Republicans have pressed for “smart” cuts in lieu of slashing spending by sequestration — for example, Utah’s two senators, Orrin Hatch and Mike Lee, both proposed alternatives to the sequester — they have failed to organize a plan that can meet Democrats somewhere in the middle. Getting rid of the debt will require raising taxes or cutting benefits to, as Douglas Elmendorf puts it, “people who consider themselves to be in the middle class.” That, or a little of both.

The alternative is to do nothing until America can no longer ignore its spending habits. The sequester may not be the crisis that our politicians are threatening, but it foreshadows what will happen if we don’t find a way to fund the government programs we have created.

As the Bipartisan Policy Center puts it, after predicting that sequestration could cost as many as a million jobs over the next two years, “The lesson … is that we can expect much pain for little gain.” Whether its prediction that jobs will be lost is accurate remains to be seen

Senator Hatch’s anti-tax hike sequester proposal [updated]

, member of the United States Senate.

[Update] Since original publication, Senator Hatch’s Press Secretary was kind enough to both read and comment that the Senator’s proposal is only intended to be a short term fix and that the Senator has proposed more long term solutions to Medicare and Medicaid. The proposal dates back to the end of January and can be found here.


 

[Original post] Senate Democrats proposal to dealing with the sequester is simple: raise taxes. The expenses of the federal government in caring for America are increasing, and so some Americans should pay more of their fair share.

Senator Hatch on Friday responded, with both a legislative  proposal that avoids any tax increase and an op-ed the Salt Lake Tribune describing the proposal.

Our country is $16.6 trillion in debt. Republicans have tried to work with Senate Democrats on common-sense spending cuts so we can begin to get our crippling debt under control, but we’ve been met with virtual silence. Disappointingly, the president seems more interested in continuing his campaign across the country to score political points, all while the country sits disgusted with a lack of action from Washington to fix the president’s sequester.

The cuts represented in the sequester are necessary, but what is not necessary is how they are structured. To essentially cut $1 trillion from our military in a short period of time will place an unnecessary burden on our service members and the workers who aid their efforts. So why won’t the president work with us to restructure these cuts in a more manageable way so the Department of Defense can plan accordingly?

Hatch’s proposal–his “smart spending cuts”–finds $142.2 billion in cuts from the federal budget. That’s $60 billion more than the amount cut this year by the sequester, “but in a much more common-sense, reasonable way[,]” says Utah’s senior senator in his Tribune piece.

A break down of Hatch’s plan on his site shows proposed cuts, based on a 2011 report by Senator Tom Coburn of Oklahoma called “Back in Black.” Using estimates from that report, Hatch finds ten areas where the federal government can cut back without affecting spending on national security. With the sequester disproportionately hitting defense spending (nearly $500 billion of the $1.1 trillion in cuts over the next decade are coming out of the military spending), Hatch appears to have made special effort not to touch the armed services.

130226-tobias-sequesterNot surprisingly, the list of proposed budget savings include a number of targets for conservative ire in recent years (and decades), including elimination of funding for  National Public Radio, consolidating National Endowment for the Arts and National Endowment for Humanities under one roof, freezing federal employee pay to match locality, and reducing agency budgets for advertising and travel. Also, fewer limousines owned by the feds.

I’m impressed that Senator Hatch is proposing more specific cuts than the across-the-board-we’re-all-gonna-die cuts that have been threatened by fear-mongering administration officials over the last week. The proposals astutely avoid hurting any particular constituency, with the exception of a few federal employees who will make roughly the same as their counterparts in the private sector in the areas they live, but that seems reasonable–working for the government is not supposed to make you rich.

However, it’s clear that the cuts are not much more than chopping at leaves with little real long-term impact on the drivers of federal budgetary growth.  Untouched are the big costs–Medicare and Medicaid.  In spite of bipartisan agreement that reform is necessary to retain the long-term solvency of these programs for the poor and weak in society, little effort has been made to address their future. I laud Hatch’s efforts on the budget, but I would like to see a more frank discussion of how entitlement spending will be addressed.


The full list of Senator Hatch’s proposal is here:

1. Freeze Federal Locality Pay for Five Years:  The Federal Employees Pay Comparability Act of 1990 created locality pay to align salaries for federal employees with private sector pay scales in their geographic area.  Estimated savings: $71 billion over ten years.

2. Reduce Civilian Agencies’ Travel Budgets by 75 Percent:  Estimated savings: $43.3 billion over ten years.

3. Reduce Agency Advertising Budgets by 50 Percent:  Estimated savings: $5.6 billion over ten years.

4. Combine National Endowment for the Arts and National Endowment for the Humanities into One Agency and Reduce Funding by 75 Percent:  Estimated savings: $2.8 billion over ten years.

5. Consolidate Various Funding Programs into a New Office Dedicated to Weather Research with the National Science Foundation and Reduce Overall Expenditures for This Research:  Estimated savings: $11.6 billion over ten years.

6. Eliminate Federal Funding for Public Media (National Public Radio and Public Broadcasting Service):  Estimated savings: $5.6 billion over ten years.

7. Reduce Administrative Expenses for the Treasury Department:  This would include eliminating printing and mailing of certain forms, publications and inserts.  Estimated savings: $2.2 billion over ten years.

8. Reduce the Number of Limousines Owned by Federal Agencies:  Estimated savings: $115.5 million over ten years.