May 23, 2013

Is the union stronger? [Contributor]

obama-state-union-2013-climate-change_64249_600x450President Obama’s State of the Union address was in trouble hardly after it began when he said that “we can say with renewed confidence that the state of our union is stronger.”

Economically, that’s hardly believable, with a $16.5 trillion national debt and annual budget deficit topping $1 trillion for the fourth consecutive year. Neither the legitimacy nor effectiveness of Obama’s proposals seemed to hardly improve from his introductory claim.

  • The president started his claim of a recently stronger America by saying that both parties worked together to reduce the deficit by more than $2.5 million, “mostly through spending cuts, but also by raising taxes on the wealthiest 1 percent of Americans.” That’s difficult to say, given that spending cuts to tax increases came at a 10:1 rate.
  • “We can’t ask senior citizens and working families,” he said, “to shoulder the entire burden of deficit reduction while asking nothing more from the wealthiest and the most powerful.” The problem is that U.S. government transfers to individuals in 1960 totaled about $24 billion in current dollars. By 2010, that total was almost 100 times as large. Even after adjusting for inflation and population growth, entitlement transfers to individuals have grown 727 percent over the past half-century.
  • “Already, the Affordable Care Act is helping to slow the growth of health care costs,” he said. That’s difficult since most provisions of the law—including a penalty for not paying for health insurance—doesn’t go into effect until 2014.
  • The Congressional Budget Office (“CBO”) has said that health care spending has grown much more slowly in recent years, both for federal programs and overall, than it did in previous years. In response to that slowing growth, the CBO reduced its projections for future Medicare spending. However, the CBO did not specifically credit the Affordable Care Act as the reason for lowering the projections. Some aspects of the law, the report said, will slightly increase federal outlays in Medicare and Medicaid.
  • “We produce more oil at home than we have in 15 years,” he boasted. Why then, are we paying so much more for gas than 15 years ago? Gas was $1.03 on average nationally in 1998—and even with inflation considered, a 40 percent change has occurred in that time frame.

The unfulfilling assertions amounted to an often-lazy address ideologically—if even enthusiastic orally—from the president. It occurred whether it was when he argued about defeating natural disasters even through executive order, or in stating that legislation like the Fairness Payment Act will be a cure-all to the oft-overrated issue of gender pay discrimination. If the suggestions aren’t already a violation of federalism as defined in the 10th amendment, they are too lofty in their objective, lacking a realism that the American public deserves to hear in tumultuous times.

After saying that the U.S. will continue to “keep the pressure on a Syrian regime that has murdered its own people and support opposition leaders that respect the rights of every Syrian,” Obama said his administration would “stand steadfast with Israel in pursuit of security and a lasting peace.’ Promises of the sort remain hollow given Obama’s incessant apologies about American behavior in foreign policy between 9/11 and the start of his presidency.

It was filled with a level of substance found in a sequence in the latter half of the speech, when the president suddenly diverted from his meticulous briefing of various policies to lay out a vague laundry list of issues. They included “eradicating poverty in the next two decades,” “connecting more people to the global economy,” “empowering women,” “giving our young and brightest minds new opportunities to serve” and “by realizing the promise of an AIDS-free generation.”

Generally, they are about as realizable as personally assuring that Iran wouldn’t use a nuclear weapon against the U.S., as Obama promised in his final foreign policy debate against Mitt Romney in late October in Boca Raton, Fla.

Though many of the president’s expectations outlined until his ambiguous list were misaligned or not appropriate for his national administration to mandate, at least he hadn’t yet delved into nothing more than feel-good fodder. Now, we can’t attribute that to him after all.

The president did get it right near the end of the address.

“It is not a bigger government we need,” Obama said, “but a smarter government that sets priorities and invests in broad-based growth.”

That’s refreshing. But given several trepidations about some of his other expectations, validity of the statement is, once again, in question.

The Never Ending Campaign

Is it me, or does it feel the campaign for President might never end? Especially when I see things like this:

For heaven’s sake, the 2012 campaign just ended. Can we at least wait until 2013 to start thinking about 2016? (Silly me, I know)

 

Could Rand Paul bridge the gap between libertarians and Republicans?

Rand Paul, son of Ron Paul and Senator from Kentucky, is considering a run for President in 2016.

I know:–Mitt Romney’s campaign is barely dead and in the ground and already we’re hearing the rumblings of 2016′s challengers. Marco Rubio made headlines at a fundraiser in Iowa by commenting on the age of the Earth (HUH?) and now we hear that Ron Paul’s scion is openly interested in running, too.

For the kind of change needed in the Republican Party, it may not be too soon to start thinking about it.

“I’m not going to deny that I’m interested” in a 2016 presidential run, [Rand Paul] told ABC News. “I am different than some in that I’m not going to deny that I’m interested. I’m not going to deny that I think we have to go a different direction because we’re not winning.”

Not only is he “different than some,” but he also thinks the Republican Party’s problem goes beyond improving the GOP’s marketing and messaging–policy changes are needed, too.

Sound familiar? It’s not unlike what his father has argued for during the 2008 and 2012 elections.

Some of the policies that Rand Paul wants to see the GOP shift on include immigration, marijuana, and foreign wars.

He wants to work with liberal Democratic Sen. Patrick Leahy and Republicans to eliminate mandatory minimum sentences for pot possession. He wants to carve a compromise immigration plan with an “eventual path” to citizenship for illegal immigrants, a proposal he believes could be palatable to conservatives. And he believes his ideas — along with pushing for less U.S. military intervention in conflicts overseas — could help the GOP broaden its tent and appeal to crucial voting blocs that handed Democrats big wins in the West Coast, the Northeast and along the Great Lakes.

They are policies that are decidedly more libertarian and can appeal to blocks of voters that many believe the GOP should be winning: voters under 40, Hispanics, and anyone tired of war.  With the shifting America’s shifting demographics working against the 2012 GOP party platform, the question is whether Rand Paul’s new road could be a path to the future for the Republican Party.

Oh, and one more thing: Paul wants to limit Senators to just twelve years of service. Think it’ll work?

Post-Election Thoughts on Opportunities for the Republican Party

A lot of commentators start the Monday morning quarterbacking of elections within hours of the election. Heck, within minutes of the first polls coming in if they’re on cable TV.

I am not a “lot of commentators,” nor do I have a cable contract for a faux news show (but I’m available, if you’re wondering).

After letting the results settle for a day, though, I have a few thoughts on the election.

First, even in losing, Mitt Romney is a stand-up guy. As he took the podium Tuesday night, he opened by congratulating President Obama and his campaign team, and saying that he would support and pray for the President as he addresses the issues our country is facing. Even if that kind of thing is expected of a losing candidate, it’s tough for a person to do. Mitt put six years into this, and watching it end must be difficult.

On a similar note, I think Mitt represented his faith well, showed that Mormons are more mainstream than Americans have thought in the past, and even though he lost, I believe his religion has won. This election was a step forward for Mormons seeking mainstream acceptance without compromising their religious values.

Looking to the future, I think we’re going to see a lot of circular firing squads on the right. Pundits, insiders, strategists, advisers, campaigners, donors, and angry supporters are going to start pointing the finger at who caused Romney’s loss, and many of them are going to point a finger at Romney. I am sure that Romney would say that “the buck stops here,” and will man up to take responsibility for his part. However, he ran a tough campaign, and with a party that in many ways has refused to account for shifts in our country over the last couple decades. A moderate (very roughly speaking) Republican with more a penchant for data and results than for ideology, Romney was forced to kowtow to the far right during the debates (arguably against less than the best the Republican Party had to offer), and then struggled to tack back to the middle, a place he should have been more comfortable, too late to woo swing voters.

Which brings me to another point: the GOP is facing a demographic challenge that I believe will require not only policy adjustment and greater outreach, but also more careful candidate preparation and education.  In too many cases, Republicans lost seats, and perhaps lost voters nationwide, due to unforced errors (Google: “Akin,” “Mourdock,” and “legitimate rape” or just “rape”).

For heaven’s sake, next time we pick a candidate, let’s lock him or her in the Heritage Foundation or AEI for a couple weeks to do their homework and learn a very important lesson called “Don’t say stupid things about women, minorities, or other groups.”  (Also, it would be helpful for them to understand their own positions a little better than just spouting the lines they heard on Hannity or Rush during the short drive to the televised debate.)

The combination of weak candidates and poorly communicated policies, not to mention those polices that alienate chunks of the America, was enough to lose Romney voters who might otherwise agree with him.

What are some examples where the GOP might shift or improve?

  • Immigration: while Obama made virtually no effort to keep campaign promises to reform immigration, as an interview with Univision correctly showed, the GOP’s policies and talking points about sending illegal immigrants back (including Romney’s suggestion that immigrants take themselves back) hurt Romney and the Republican Party. Instead of focusing on Republican Party policies that Hispanics should support, it raised the specter of racism under the guise of the “rule of law” by proposing to crack down on immigrants who had come to America outside of the legal process.  No, I’m not calling Republicans racists, but pointing out how the policies appeared and were communicated to Hispanics. Rather than tell Hispanics how we can make their contributions to America welcome, show Republicans how the system can be reformed to improve guest worker laws and increase payroll taxes to pay for services used (which are actually lower than the average American), we let Democrats say “send me your huddled masses” and win their votes.  If you don’t think this is an area where Republicans can improve, you need to go back and listen to Marco Rubio‘s speech at the Republican convention.
  • Gay marriage: I’m not sure how Republicans overcome this issue, but civil unions might be a formulation that could move us in the right direction. We need a compromise that accounts for the concerns of homosexuals and their families while protecting what conservatives see as the sanctity of marriage. It’s unfair to act like the religious concerns of the right are bigoted, but the very real situation and concerns of gays and lesbians are no less weighty to them. I believe there’s a common ground to be found here, and it may be as easy as looking to libertarians for guidance. America was founded on an experiment of liberty and equality under the law, and extending those rights to gays and lesbians, without treading on those who believe in the sanctity of marriage, should be a real possibility.
  • Women: in many ways, I believe that the Democratic talking point known as the “Republican war on women” was the biggest piece of spin this election. No single group was hurt more by the recession and by the failure of the Obama Administration to address the recession (in lieu of a massive healthcare reform that less than half of America wanted or needed…but that’s another story) than women, whether they are married or not. However, Republicans have done a poor job of showing how. While the Lilly Ledbetter was trotted out by Democrats as Exhibit A, those same Democrats were paying women in their own offices less than men, proposing higher taxes that would decrease job growth, and pushing a healthcare law that has caused real concern to businesses across the country.  However, it’s hard to prove that Republicans “care” about women when the Akins and Mourdocks of the world are making comments about “legitimate rape” and postulating that God wanted a raped woman to get pregnant, not to mention opposing occasionally opposing contraceptives. A sure fire way to decrease abortions–which Republicans are supposed to hate on a visceral level–is to make sure that women have access to and know how to use contraceptives of all kinds.  A woman who doesn’t get pregnant when she doesn’t intend to will not have an abortion, not need to apply for government welfare to support an unintended pregnancy, and will avoid all the costs that Medicaid is intended to pick up.
  • Young Voters: America’s youth are still up for grabs, but Republican Party elders need to reach out to them by considering their concerns. Whether it’s the job market, student loans, the rising costs of entitlements like Social Security and Medicare that the elderly draw on but the young are expected to pay, not to mention wars in countries most college students couldn’t pick out on a map. Further, young voters aren’t buying the baloney on the right about lowering the size of government. Too many Republicans have introduced too many laws that increase the size and reach and cost of government without corresponding reductions, and young voters aren’t buying it. At least President Obama is honest in saying that he wants to raise taxes, even if he’s completely wrong about the effect of doing so. Until young voters start to see Republicans propose plans that involve more than just cutting taxes (which, by the way, I think should still be a part of those plans), they aren’t going to be interested.

A final thought. The election is over, but the problems that face our country remain unchanged: high and rising national debt, explosive entitlement cost growth (Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security, primarily), terrorism threats at home and abroad, and an economy that has left too many people out of work.   I believe that Republicans are still better suited to solve these problems, but we need reevaluate our priorities if we want the opportunity to lead out with those changes in the coming decades.

 

What’s the big idea? No, really. What is it?

There was a time when a man arose to the Presidency and challenged, rather than entitled, Americans to seek great things.

And so, my fellow Americans: ask not what your country can do for you — ask what you can do for your country.

It was a heady day, a day of big ideas: a race to the moon, the fight against world-wide communism, ending poverty, civil rights, and more.

Today’s Presidency, though? Big Bird, bayonets, birth control, and government subsidies. Forget about asking what you can do for your country–it’s time to feed at the trough and see what you can get from your country.

And yet, it is small things that dominate the headlines. A Obama campaign ad where a young actor compares voting to losing her virginity. Kids singing about things so obnoxious and outlandish that no adult would go on camera doing the same, even if paid. Yes, there’s a presidential race on, but some take that to mean that almost anything goes.

Meanwhile, more important events transpire. A massive storm is plowing through the Keystone State. flooding much of the East Coast, Diplomats and American servicemen were recently killed in Libya at the hands terrorist, and when the President messed up the response, campaigning through the event, spin took the place of responsibility.

Meanwhile, the media accuses Romney of fudging the facts on the as yet undefined future of a major American automotive manufacturer (soon to possibly become a major Italian automotive manufacturer, or possibly a major Chinese manufacturer, too), and the media is more concerned with splitting hairs on his stump speech than muckraking the President’s record.  Chrysler sending manufacturing jobs to Italy is news. Terrorists killing an ambassador with impunity is news. Low brow snubs by the commander-in-chief are not.

And yet, that’s about what the President’s campaign has boiled down to: small ideas and snarky snubs.

DENVER, CO - OCTOBER 01:  Republican president...

DENVER, CO – OCTOBER 01: Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney greets supporters during a campaign rally at the Wings Over the Rockies Air and Space Museum on October 1, 2012 in Denver, Colorado. Mitt Romney arrived in Denver ahead of his first debate with U.S. President Barack Obama which will be held on Wednesday October 3. (Image credit: Getty Images via @daylife)

That’s almost about it. The entire national debate between Mitt Romney and Barack Obama has boiled down to a battle between big ideas and small things. It’s a fight between large, broad views of our nation’s legacy on one side and on the other a set of campaign promises and attacks rooted not in good policy, but as puerile as the lowest common denominators that appeals to a very small minority of voters in a minority of states.

In other words, the Obama campaign has become a cross between what is properly called  ”bread and circuses” and smearing attacks. It’s a campaign of small things.  Whether Obama is promising for the federal government to pay for anything voters have come to expect–a cell phone for the perpetually unemployed (because land-lines don’t work?), contraceptives for the sexually active but parentally unprepared, and subsidies for companies with friends in the administration, not to mention a host of items that should be properly managed by the states–or attacking Romney for opposing those very same things, the Obama campaign has become a campaign of the small.

Barack Obama

Barack Obama (Photo credit: jamesomalley)

Whether it’s about bayonets, Big Bird, binders, or birth control, President Obama has spent less time talking about how he will lead America back to prosperity than about how his opponent will roll back a liberal agenda.

It’s not so much that there are no big ideas on the left, but more that a majority of Americans don’t want them and would never vote for Barack Obama if they knew and understood them. With that in mind, Obama seeks another term, one in which he will–as he told Russia’s then-President Dmitry Medvedev–”have more flexibility” to do as he wishes. It’s an unpleasant prospect that we might elect someone who doesn’t believe he can act as he would like to because it would be unacceptable to a majority of the American people…at least until he is no longer beholden to them.

So, polls. What are they good for? There is only one that matters, and it’s not for another week. In the meantime, we’re listening to the spin-doctors, pontificators, bloviators, big-talkers, and pundits parse through what the polls mean. But are they talking about the big ideas? Rarely. It’s doing us no good and it’s not raising the conversation to the big issues.

Worse, what if the big issues no longer matter? What if the most we care about is getting our slice of the pie? Whatever happened to “Ask not what your country can do for you…”?

First brush at the foreign policy debate winners

First off, I don’t think many people watched the debate. The Bears were playing the Lions, and the Cards were playing the Giants. If Twitter, Facebook, and my Better Half were any indication, foreign policy is just too boring for most Americans.

But…I like foreign policy.  A lot.  Here’s my take:

The commentators and spin-doctors are going to come up with some way for Obama to win this debate like “on points” or something like that, but let’s be honest: he had to make headway for this debate to matter, and he made no headway. He looked miffed, angry, and irritated most of the time, and he spent the duration making excuses, debating himself, and attacking Mitt Romney, not laying out a plan for the future.  It’s clear, if nothing else, that he dislikes Mitt Romney.

That won’t get you reelected, though.

On the other hand, while Mitt Romney did nothing to set off the kind of fireworks that he did in the first debate, he did what he needed to do, and that was to prove that he has a sufficient grasp of the issues that undecided voters–who ARE voting on the economy–can trust him on foreign policy, too. He reiterated that he has a plan for the future, that he has experience in the real economy creating jobs, and that a strong economy will create a strong America.

Advantage Romney…but just.

 

Two take-aways from the Biden and Ryan debate

If you watched the VP debate on Thursday night, you saw a contentious and heated, policy heavy discussion.  It was, for all intents and purposes, a draw, with neither candidate successfully walking away with the win, and by next week’s presidential debate, it will have already been forgotten.

When we look back, though, I think two things will stick out:

  1. Joe Biden righted the ship for the Obama campaign. In last weeks  debate between Mitt Romney and Barack Obama, voters for the first time were able to make a side-by-side comparison of the candidates, resulting in a slide in the polls for the Democratic ticket. Where Obama was almost prosaic, Biden  was energetic and combative, disagreeing with Ryan on almost every point, drawing distinctions, and interrupting almost constantly (while reports vary, counters noted at least 82 times Biden interrupted Paul Ryan, while some counted more).  The confrontational and occasionally condescending attitude won’t win him a lot of undecided votes, but it will play well with the base, firing up supporters, and bringing in some fundraising dollars.  Expectations for Biden weren’t  high, but he avoided any gaffes and held his ground against Ryan.  As a result, it’ll be enough for Democratic partisans to claim they are satisfied.
  2. Paul Ryan presented a more clear and more attractive vision for America. While Ryan could be said to have effectively held his ground against the more experienced Biden, managed to work in a few zingers and bring more laughs from the audience, his performance will be more notable for the vision he presented to America, especially as encapsulated in his closing statement.

The choice is clear: a stagnant economy that promotes more government dependency or a dynamic, growing economy that promotes opportunity and jobs. Mitt Romney and I will not duck the tough issues, and we will not blame others for the next four years. We will take responsibility. And we will not try to replace our founding principles. We will reapply our founding principles.

The choice is clear, and the choice rests with you. And we ask you for your vote. Thank you.

Delivered while looking directly into the camera and in the calm, measured voice–in contrast to the often sarcastic, rude, and condescending tone adopted by Biden throughout the night–Ryan’s invitation to vote for the Romney/Ryan vision spoke of hope, not just as a campaign slogan, but with measurable effect,  and it captured what elections are about: the future.  In contrast, Biden’s combative nature only revealed the Democratic campaign to be mired in negative attacks, not a vision of the future that Americans can trust.

At the end of the day, the debate won’t have a significant impact on the race. Ryan reassured voters, provided vision, and demonstrated command of the issues. Biden provided the image of a fighter for his running mate and for his party. Neither moved a lot of votes, but neither did any harm, either. When you’re the VP, whose sole constitutional responsibility is to replace the President if, heaven forbid, he should die in office, that’s about the best you can expect.

Random observation. CNN shows a meter on the screen as the candidates are speaking that shows how a test group of undecided voters are responding to what is happening at the moment. Almost every time Ryan started to speak, the line representing women spiked, regardless of the topic. The next day, the “hey, girl” meme adopted Paul Ryan, making Ryan, essentially, the “new Ryan Gosling.”