A lot of commentators start the Monday morning quarterbacking of elections within hours of the election. Heck, within minutes of the first polls coming in if they’re on cable TV.
I am not a “lot of commentators,” nor do I have a cable contract for a faux news show (but I’m available, if you’re wondering).
After letting the results settle for a day, though, I have a few thoughts on the election.
First, even in losing, Mitt Romney is a stand-up guy. As he took the podium Tuesday night, he opened by congratulating President Obama and his campaign team, and saying that he would support and pray for the President as he addresses the issues our country is facing. Even if that kind of thing is expected of a losing candidate, it’s tough for a person to do. Mitt put six years into this, and watching it end must be difficult.
On a similar note, I think Mitt represented his faith well, showed that Mormons are more mainstream than Americans have thought in the past, and even though he lost, I believe his religion has won. This election was a step forward for Mormons seeking mainstream acceptance without compromising their religious values.
Looking to the future, I think we’re going to see a lot of circular firing squads on the right. Pundits, insiders, strategists, advisers, campaigners, donors, and angry supporters are going to start pointing the finger at who caused Romney’s loss, and many of them are going to point a finger at Romney. I am sure that Romney would say that “the buck stops here,” and will man up to take responsibility for his part. However, he ran a tough campaign, and with a party that in many ways has refused to account for shifts in our country over the last couple decades. A moderate (very roughly speaking) Republican with more a penchant for data and results than for ideology, Romney was forced to kowtow to the far right during the debates (arguably against less than the best the Republican Party had to offer), and then struggled to tack back to the middle, a place he should have been more comfortable, too late to woo swing voters.
Which brings me to another point: the GOP is facing a demographic challenge that I believe will require not only policy adjustment and greater outreach, but also more careful candidate preparation and education. In too many cases, Republicans lost seats, and perhaps lost voters nationwide, due to unforced errors (Google: “Akin,” “Mourdock,” and “legitimate rape” or just “rape”).
For heaven’s sake, next time we pick a candidate, let’s lock him or her in the Heritage Foundation or AEI for a couple weeks to do their homework and learn a very important lesson called “Don’t say stupid things about women, minorities, or other groups.” (Also, it would be helpful for them to understand their own positions a little better than just spouting the lines they heard on Hannity or Rush during the short drive to the televised debate.)
The combination of weak candidates and poorly communicated policies, not to mention those polices that alienate chunks of the America, was enough to lose Romney voters who might otherwise agree with him.
What are some examples where the GOP might shift or improve?
Immigration: while Obama made virtually no effort to keep campaign promises to reform immigration, as an interview with Univision correctly showed, the GOP’s policies and talking points about sending illegal immigrants back (including Romney’s suggestion that immigrants take themselves back) hurt Romney and the Republican Party. Instead of focusing on Republican Party policies that Hispanics should support, it raised the specter of racism under the guise of the “rule of law” by proposing to crack down on immigrants who had come to America outside of the legal process. No, I’m not calling Republicans racists, but pointing out how the policies appeared and were communicated to Hispanics. Rather than tell Hispanics how we can make their contributions to America welcome, show Republicans how the system can be reformed to improve guest worker laws and increase payroll taxes to pay for services used (which are actually lower than the average American), we let Democrats say “send me your huddled masses” and win their votes. If you don’t think this is an area where Republicans can improve, you need to go back and listen to Marco Rubio‘s speech at the Republican convention.
Gay marriage: I’m not sure how Republicans overcome this issue, but civil unions might be a formulation that could move us in the right direction. We need a compromise that accounts for the concerns of homosexuals and their families while protecting what conservatives see as the sanctity of marriage. It’s unfair to act like the religious concerns of the right are bigoted, but the very real situation and concerns of gays and lesbians are no less weighty to them. I believe there’s a common ground to be found here, and it may be as easy as looking to libertarians for guidance. America was founded on an experiment of liberty and equality under the law, and extending those rights to gays and lesbians, without treading on those who believe in the sanctity of marriage, should be a real possibility.- Women: in many ways, I believe that the Democratic talking point known as the “Republican war on women” was the biggest piece of spin this election. No single group was hurt more by the recession and by the failure of the Obama Administration to address the recession (in lieu of a massive healthcare reform that less than half of America wanted or needed…but that’s another story) than women, whether they are married or not. However, Republicans have done a poor job of showing how. While the Lilly Ledbetter was trotted out by Democrats as Exhibit A, those same Democrats were paying women in their own offices less than men, proposing higher taxes that would decrease job growth, and pushing a healthcare law that has caused real concern to businesses across the country. However, it’s hard to prove that Republicans “care” about women when the Akins and Mourdocks of the world are making comments about “legitimate rape” and postulating that God wanted a raped woman to get pregnant, not to mention opposing occasionally opposing contraceptives. A sure fire way to decrease abortions–which Republicans are supposed to hate on a visceral level–is to make sure that women have access to and know how to use contraceptives of all kinds. A woman who doesn’t get pregnant when she doesn’t intend to will not have an abortion, not need to apply for government welfare to support an unintended pregnancy, and will avoid all the costs that Medicaid is intended to pick up.
- Young Voters: America’s youth are still up for grabs, but Republican Party elders need to reach out to them by considering their concerns. Whether it’s the job market, student loans, the rising costs of entitlements like Social Security and Medicare that the elderly draw on but the young are expected to pay, not to mention wars in countries most college students couldn’t pick out on a map. Further, young voters aren’t buying the baloney on the right about lowering the size of government. Too many Republicans have introduced too many laws that increase the size and reach and cost of government without corresponding reductions, and young voters aren’t buying it. At least President Obama is honest in saying that he wants to raise taxes, even if he’s completely wrong about the effect of doing so. Until young voters start to see Republicans propose plans that involve more than just cutting taxes (which, by the way, I think should still be a part of those plans), they aren’t going to be interested.
A final thought. The election is over, but the problems that face our country remain unchanged: high and rising national debt, explosive entitlement cost growth (Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security, primarily), terrorism threats at home and abroad, and an economy that has left too many people out of work. I believe that Republicans are still better suited to solve these problems, but we need reevaluate our priorities if we want the opportunity to lead out with those changes in the coming decades.
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- A More Diverse GOP (theamericanconservative.com)
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Here’s the thing with the youth vote. People under 25 have no memory of the Republicans being cool. They had Clinton as a kid, then Bush took over, grew government, exploded the deficit, got us into two wars, couldn’t speak more than two sentences without making you cringe, and then he left. And now there’s Obama, who went to MTV, Daily Show, etc., to reach out. Very Clinton-esque way of getting the youth vote.
It’s true. Branding has been a problem for the GOP. The method for addressing young people, in many ways, seems to almost mock the seriously boring nature of some of the problems on the agenda.
Medicare and Social Security are not entitlements. They are paid benefits. Medicaid is an “entitlement.”
Partially yes, but partially no. Social security does have paid benefits elements, but it also has elements which are reserved by law beyond what is paid into it. Supplemental Security Income and Social Security Disabilities are paid out when individuals are entitled based on their low income, making them entitlements, not paid benefits.
Largely speaking though, even for those elements which are not “entitlements,” they are grouped for purposes of the greater point: they need reform or the cost will exceed our ability to pay…or to borrow.
Dan, this is a great post.
Thanks, S. Ingram. Good to hear from you.