Polls got you down? Don't Panic

Polls got you down? Don’t Panic

September 12, 2012 by Daniel Burton

These two simple words can save you a world of worry and even improve how you respond to life.

So take a deep breath and don’t worry. Don’t panic.

To the topic: polls. There’s really only one that matters, and it’s only held in November. That doesn’t mean we don’t follow every poll like it’s a glance at the scoreboard of a rivalry week football game. The difference is that elections are not about getting ahead and running the clock out–they’re about peaking on election day.

So relax, take a breath, and realize that polls are less like a scoreboard and more like taking the temperature of a body of water…a large body. You can get the temperature at any given point, but you only learn so much. Factors like where you dip your thermometer, how deep you dip it, what time of day you take the temperature, and so on will all affect the reading. Similarly, with polls, who the poll calls, what time of day, who answers the phone, and what football game is on at the same time…all this will affect the outcome of the poll.

In the end, polling is only helpful, but often not indicative of the result. Even Ronald Reagan was running behind Jimmy Carter at this point in the election in 1980, by almost four points. So, when polls seem to be “all over the place,” says John Fund, take a look at the polls are handling “undecided” voters:

This year there may be more undecided voters out there than people think. Most pollsters deal with voters who say they “don’t know” how they will vote by asking them whom they lean toward. Zogby says that kind of “hard pushing” creates very “soft” supporters, who can easily change their minds or not vote at all.

There are other reasons polls tilt slightly toward Democrats. The late Warren Mitofsky, who developed exit polling for CBS News in the 1960s, believed Democrats were more likely to respond to media polls than were Republicans, who may distrust the “liberal” news media. More than 80 percent of the people pollsters try to contact

routinely hide behind voice mail or screening devices or otherwise refuse to answer. That makes survey results more uncertain, and should cause concern, caution, and above all humility in reporting polling results.

Confucius says: humility in reporting polling results saves embarrassment on election day. Polls are regularly wrong or survey the wrong people.

Last, remember this: no sitting president who has run an approval rating less than 50% has garnered reelection, and President Obama is stuck hovering around 48% (Washington Post/ABC). He’s been around there for two and half years.

[National Review]