Jason Kane is a recovering rock star and an attorney in Salt Lake County. He is an occasional contributor to Publius Online.
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In the days leading up to the Supreme Court oral arguments on the constitutionality of President’s Obama’s signature health care law, there was no end to the media speculation about which conservative leaning justice(s) would leave the dark-side and vote to uphold Obamacare. We were treated to a barrage of statistics touting the popularity of Obamacare, reminders that Republicans had supported mandates in the past and other specious arguments that have no bearing on the constitutionality of the law. Self-assured Progressives, it seemed, had little concern that socialized medicine was in any danger.
After one day of arguments that didn’t go particularly well for the government, the Obamacare cheerleaders seem to be in full back-peddle mode. One blog post at the Daily Beast is especially entertaining, arguing that if the individual health insurance mandate is struck down, it will actually be a boon to Obama’s reelection. Obama would no longer have to defend the controversial law and be free to run on his other spectacular achievements, like killing Bin Laden and… killing Bin Laden. This line of thinking, of course, flies in the face of common sense and everything we know about politics. Losing is bad for business and tends to embolden the opposition. In this particular election year, it also happens to help rid Romney of much of the health care baggage that continues to poison the well with many Republicans.
To be sure, I think it is premature to start dancing on the grave of Obamacare. But the tough skepticism exhibited by Justice Kennedy, the left’s only hope in a 5-4 decision, gives Obamacare proponents good reason for concern. We cannot foretell the outcome based on oral arguments alone, though they do seem to hold particular weight in this case. At the very least though, the seeds of self-doubt have been sewn among the Progressives. We should allow ourselves savor this rare phenomenon while it lasts.
Related articles
- Key Supreme Court Justices Express Skepticism Over Constitutionality Of Health Care Law (jonathanturley.org)
- Are There Five Votes to Uphold ObamaCare’s Mandate? (reason.com)
- The Audio From Today’s Supreme Court Hearing on Obamacare (healthcarebs.com)
- Is the Supreme Court Skeptical of ObamaCare’s Insurance Mandate? (reason.com)
- People Are Saying That Obama’s Healthcare Law Got Massacred At The Supreme Court Today (tarpon.wordpress.com)
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After Verrilli’s meltdown today I can see why they would be backpedaling
I have long predicted that the Court would uphold Obamacare, but yesterday’s oral argument went worse for the government than anyone predicted.
I still think it’s uncertain which way things will ultimately come out, but…my goodness.
Thing is: how much is really dependent on how badly the solicitor general did? Or was it just a case of someone (the justices) shouting “The emperor has no clothes!”
Well hard to know, though his performance was remarkably poor. But I certaintly felt at times as though the Justices (at least a couple of them) were more or less crying out to the S.G. saying, “Can’t you give us anything??”
I’d give away my home and live in a car out in D.C. if I could clerk at the Supreme Court during the next 3 months. :)We certainly do live in interesting times…
That sounds like an old Chinese curse…
Isn’t there a Chinese curse along those lines? “May you live in interesting times.”