May 26, 2013

Behind the scenes, a walk down “Radio Row” at the Republican Convention

Newt Gingrich on “Radio Row”

Have you ever wondered where the national press all hide out during these big national conventions?

Coming to the Republican National Convention has provided an interesting view of what goes on behind the scenes, not only on the political side, but with the media, too. Adjacent to the main convention arena the media has set up shop in a building divided up by the type of media, whether it’s radio, print, or television. Larger media outlets have their own rooms, while smaller units share space next to each other.

KSL News Radio, our patron for the week, is on “radio row,”  a long double aisle of radio broadcasters sitting at desks with just laptops and microphones. It’s nothing fancy, but it does the job. KSL’s incomparable Doug Wright is stationed at a spot next to Geraldo Rivera (and his ostentatious mustache) and across from where Mike Huckabee sits. Throughout the day, whether because the RNC had postponed it’s activities and there was nowhere else to go or just because they wanted to be there,  politicians and celebrities (well, just one celebrity that we saw–Jon Voight) roamed “radio row” talking to the talk show hosts and reporters.

For me, this was a windfall. Not even qualifying as a cub reporter, or even a novice, I made friends with a few good staffers from Senator Mike Lee’s office early on, and they were quick to lend me a helping hand to meet and talk to the other political luminaries cruising the area.

Who are a few of the folks we spoke with today, then?

  • Elizabeth Emkin: Facing down incumbent Democratic Senator Diane Feinstein to represent California, Emkin says that she’s confident that the ground is shifting and California is ready to pick a candidate who will cut government regulation and lower taxes. She noted that Feinstein’s already polling at less than 45%.

Dan Bongino in 2008 on the Presidential Secret Service detail in Park City, Utah.

  • Dan Bongino: I first met Dan when he was a Secret Service Agent protecting President Bush during a fundraiser for John McCain at Mitt Romney’s place in Park City.  A former New York cop, Bongino left the Secret Service to run for Senate in Maryland because of concerns about the direction the country is taking and the lack of initiative and effort to change that direction by the current incumbent. He’s a sharp guy, easy to like, and I look forward to hearing more from him. (Yes, he did serve under Obama, and no, he would not discuss it.)
  • Jon Voight dropped in and walked over to shake my hand and sit down for an interview…right before someone pointed out to him that I wasn’t really anyone of consequence and that Mike Huckabee was waiting for him. I did shake his hand, though. Does that put me just two degrees away from Bradgelina?
  • Senator Mike Lee: Coming back from a pit stop, Doug Wright and Lee Lonsberry handed me a microphone and informed me that I was going to interview Senator Mike Lee…in about thirty seconds. Needless to say, I asked about three softball questions (which the Senator answered with great alacrity and clarity) and found myself tongue-tied…fortunately, Doug stepped in. Mark my words–I’ll be better prepared next time for Utah’s formidable junior senator.
  • Dan Burton asks Senate Minority leader Senator Mitch McConnell a question for KSL News Radio.

    Senator Mitch McConnell. Yes, really. Thanks to a smooth talking contact, Senator McConnell’s press secretary allowed me the chance to ask a single question of the Senate minority leader between a pair of radio interviews. The Senator was gracious, even if his answer to my question (“What is your prediction for taking control of the Senate?”) was something safe along the lines of “Whoever has the most points at the end of the football game will be the winner (“We have a fifty-fifty chance, I think…” is how he started). It was pretty cool, I must admit, just to get the chance to ask the question.

I also caught sight of Newt Gingrich through a scrum, but there was no getting close to the glowering but “happy warrior” through the press. Not to be forgotten, my Better-half sat next to Josh Romney at breakfast (for all of forty-five seconds before he took the podium to speak) and also ran into Dan Rather, almost literally.

And this is just day one! The convention hasn’t even had a full session, yet!

 

Will Utah Matter in the GOP Race for President?

[Posted today on KSL.com]

____________________________

According to a Deseret News/KSL poll Utahns believe Mitt Romney alone can beat Barack Obama in November (surprise!).  And yet, today, on Super Tuesday, as ten states hold primaries, Utah is not one of them. In fact,  Utah casts its vote for the Republican nominee dead last.  Even with a nomination battle likely to continue into the spring, the race may be over by then.

 Maybe.

Remember when there were eight candidates in the field?  Then Iowa and New Hampshire voted, and suddenly, with just forty delegate votes allocated (out of 1,144 necessary to win the nomination), Michelle Bachmann, Jon Huntsman, and Rick Perry all dropped out. Herman Cain, marred by scandal, had left the campaign earlier. And then there were four: Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Romney, and Rick Santorum.

In a country of 300 million, the only votes cast were in  Iowa (about 120,000 votes)  and New Hampshire (about 224,000 votes), yet candidates were dropping like flies.  How had so few narrowed down the field of choices so quickly?

We Vote for the Popular Candidate

If it seems unfair, then consider the Britney Effect. In a study published in Science 2006, researchers found that social popularity was a better indicator of how well a book or a song would sell than quality. In other words, if you see that others are reading and discussing Harry Potter, you’re more likely to pick it up yourself, regardless of quality.

So if you thought Bachmann had the answers for America, it didn’t matter. Her race was over as soon as the primary battle began. As soon as the results from Iowa, and then New Hampshire, were released, polls started showing bumps in popularity of the contest winners. Santorum, who spent months on the margins of debates practically whining he that he wasn’t getting the same amount of camera time that front-runners were, suddenly sprung to national attention as he eked out a win in Iowa.  If Iowans like Santorum, he must be electable, right?

Strange rational, and yet, it buoyed the former Senator to wins in Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri. From zero to hero, Santorum became the newest rendition of “not Romney” for Republicans unwilling to throw their support behind Romney.

Can you imagine how the results might be different if states across the country voted simultaneously?

Super Tuesday?

Today, March 6th, is Super Tuesday. Voters in Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Vermont, and Virginia will vote for the last four remaining contenders. By this time four years ago, Romney had dropped out of the race, and John McCain was well on his way to the nomination.  Since then, the Republican National Committee has modified the rules to lengthen out the nomination process. That’s right: it isn’t by accident that the race isn’t over yet. As the Boston Globe reported, Republicans changed the rules to energize Republicans and take back the White House:

The rules, known as proportional representation, are patterned after the system long used by Democrats to award delegates in their primaries. Republicans looked at the prolonged 2008 Democratic primary between Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama and believed that, despite its occasional divisiveness, the battle helped excite Democrats and starve the Republican candidate, John McCain, of attention.

“McCain sat on the sidelines and couldn’t get a headline and was ignored,’’ said Paul Senft, a Republican National Committee member from Florida who helped draft the new rules.

Now, rather than making each contest a foregone conclusion in the favor of the front-runner, more states are in contention. Nate Silver predicts that Super Tuesday won’t see one winner, but will split between Romney, Gingrich, and Santorum (sorry, Paul). Gingrich will capture his home state of Georgia, while Romney will take Massachusetts, his home and where he served as Governor. Oklahoma and Wisconsin will swing to Santorum. Meanwhile, Ohio, where Santorum was polling in front as recently as a week ago, is starting to turn to Romney (see what wins in Michigan, Arizona, and Washington will do?).  As a swing state in the General Election, the spin-doctors (and the Obama campaign) will be watching the Buckeye state closely. And don’t forget Tennessee, where Gingrich seems to be surging in polls…

Wherefore, Utah? 

So might it still matter when Utahns go to the polls on June 26th? For that matter, why isn’t Utah voting until the beginning of summer, anyway?

Due to the Military and Overseas Voter Act or “MOVE” Act, federal elections must give absentee voters overseas forty-five days to vote after the previous contest. In Utah’s case, that means that the earliest a primary can be held is forty-five days after the Republican or Democrat state party conventions in April. Despite efforts by the Romney campaign to talk Utah into moving the vote to earlier, the $2.5 million cost to move the primary away from the regularly scheduled date was too much for legislators to swallow.  Utah will vote last.

In the meantime, is there still a chance that Utah could play a deciding role in a race that has seen so many front-runners? Statistically speaking, it’s impossible for any of the candidates to get enough votes before April. With 1962 votes remaining, and Romney–currently the leader with 180 delegates–needing another 964 votes, the race could continue all the way through May, to say nothing of June.

Could Utah get its chance to vote for Romney when it still matters? Only time will tell.

Are we there yet? GOP Candidates Face-off for the Twentieth Time

With fingers crossed that this would be their last debate together, the final four Republican contenders for President faced off in Arizona on Wednesday night. The stakes were high—for some more than others. Without Governor Mitt Romney’s money, Senator Rick Santorum and Speaker Newt Gingrich knew that this might be their best chance to pick up undecided votes in the upcoming Super Tuesday primaries. For Romney, it was a chance to retake the lead in the race for President. Lest we forget, Ron Paul came along, too, but, despite a strong performance, is increasingly playing the role of side-kick to front-runner Romney.

So how did they do?

From right to left (as they sat on the stage):

Ron Paul: If Santorum expected punches from Romney, the Congressman Paul was ready to get in his hits, too . “He’s a fake,” Paul said of Santorum, wasting no time pointing out that Santorum was an insider and a part of what was wrong with Congress and Washington. With Iran’s nuclear ambitions in the news, Paul also took every opportunity to criticize America’s military adventures abroad. However his message appeals, it is unlikely it earned significantly more votes, except perhaps from Santorum’s “not Romney” voters. B

Rick Santorum: For a guy who spent the first fifteen debates complaining he wasn’t getting enough camera time, Santorum had his chance at the center next to longtime front-runner Mitt Romney. Although he had strong moments—especially in his closing statement, which dripped with red meat—both Paul and Romney took turns attacking Santorum for votes over sixteen years in Congress, including for No Child Left Behind and funding Planned Parenthood. At one point, Santorum was visibly red as he sputtered and responded to the attacks, repeatedly admitting to the votes. B –

Mitt Romney: As the presumptive nominee (at least according to the Obama for President reelection campaign), Romney stood to lose the most. He’s polling even with Santorum in Michigan—where Mitt grew up—and a poor performance could damage his lead in Arizona. However, Mitt successfully marshaled facts and points to repeatedly delivered successful attacks on Santorum and Gingrich. They are Washington insiders; he is the successful businessman and turnaround expert who wants to restore the country to prosperity. Despite an average closing statement, overall the debate was Romney’s. B+

Newt Gingrich: To paraphrase Allison Kraus, Newt says it best when he says nothing at all. Showing his penchant for sounding intelligent saying anything substantive, Gingrich put on a happy face, made obvious overtures to the other candidates—even telling Mitt “nice job” after the Governor received a longer set of applause—and called himself “cheerful.” However, voters view Gingrich as anything but, and while he was articulate in criticizing the media for double standards, Gingrich was unable to steal the spotlight from Romney and Santorum’s fist fight. C+

 

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Losing Nevada, Newt Gingrich Holds a Press Conference [video]

For a guy who last week, upon losing Florida, was talking the populist talk of running a campaign for and by the people, Newt sure made a strange choice when he opted to skip a speech to reassure his supporters and instead went to the press to air his grievances.

For an airing of grievances is what it was.

If you want to know what kind of man Newt Gingrich is, then you must watch his press conference. After losing Nevada by a two to one margin, he opted to speak to the press instead of supporters (which is ironic, given how much he has bashed the press during the campaign).

It’s revealing to see him swing from blaming negativity for his fall from the top to seconds later slinging ambiguous accusations about the honesty of his opponent (as well as any other mud he can allude to without standing on any facts).  If anything, Mitt Romney has been ribbed for being too square, not for being loose with the truth.

Another interesting moment was when Newt levied former Presidential candidates to bolster his accusations of dishonesty. Ironically, all of those former rivals have either endorsed Mitt for the White House or have opted to stay out of the race.

Here is part 2 of the press conference.

 

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Four down…forty-six more to go.

Newt lost Florida, and he lost big. He dissed Romney by not calling to concede. Guess what? There are still forty-six states left in the Republican nomination battle. We’re going to see a lot more of him and his antics.

Further, if you’re voting where I am, you’re voting last. Dead last.

But enough about Utah’s primary in the last third of June. I’ve already expended enough hot air on that else where. While there are some really interesting ideas for changing up the Primary process, we’ll deal with those on a later date.

Right now, we’ve got a primary battle, and it’s going to be long. Contrary to victory speeches and common sense, this race will continue for a while. Don’t believe me?  Check out this graphic from the New York Times (the red text and arrows are mine):

In other words, despite Romney’s big win in Florida–and yes, it’s a big win–it’s only a small minority of the total votes he needs to secure the nomination, not to mention the total votes that are available. If Newt Gingrich can mount a serious campaign somewhere other than in the Bible Belt, he can lengthen this race out for months.

What’s next, then? First up on the agenda is Nevada, which is heavily favored for Romney. With a substantial LDS population (somewhere between 7% and 8% of voters and 25% of caucus attendees), Mormon Mitt Romney will have a leg up on the competition. Further, neighboring Utah will be sending hordes of energetic Republicans who watched Mitt up close when he was brought in to save the scandal bitten Salt Lake Winter Olympics in 2002…which he did, successfully, transforming a deficit to a surplus, all on his own dime.

Anyway: Mitt will likely win, but only a proportional number of the delegates. Unlike South Carolina and Florida, which are winner take all, Nevada distributes its delegates proportionately, similar to New Hampshire.

After the Nevada caucus? Colorado and Minnesota are on February 7 (next Monday), but their delegates, like Iowa’s, are not pledged to the winner because the election is non-binding. (Yeah, that’s a topic for another post…) Following quickly four days later, we’ll see Maine…also, non-binding.

In that case, the next serious contest is likely to be Arizona and Michigan on February 28th. Arizona–also featuring a large LDS population–is a winner-take-all contest, but Michigan is hybrid. As the Washington Post explains it, “9 delegates are allocated proportionally based on the statewide vote. 21 delegates are awarded on a winner-take-all basis to the winner of each congressional district (1.5 per district).”  Got it?

Got it or not, the big day to put on your calendar is “Super Tuesday” on March 6. (Yes, Washington has a non-binding vote, but, well, let’s move on to the binding votes…). On that day, ten states will hold primaries (or caucuses), including Georgia (where Gingrich served as Congressman), Virginia, and Tennessee, all which are Bible Belt states where Gingrich is betting he’ll do well with the evangelicals. Further, all ten are proportional or some sort of hybrid of proportional, and a good showing will keep him neck and neck with Mitt Romney well into March.

Another graphic from the New York Times:

In other words, while Mitt’s likely to win the next five or even six states, it’s going to take him a lot longer to win the nomination if Newt (and Rick and Ron) stay in it. Newt is  a formidable opponent, and if Rick Santorum gets out, leaving his supporters to support Newt, then we see an even stronger Gingrich going into Super Tuesday.

Nate Silver, in one of his well-considered scenarios, lays it out well:

Mr. Romney endures a few more losses along the way, including in some midsize states, especially in the South. However, he wins the clear majority of contests. His advantages are accentuated by his performance in caucus states and his support amongautomatic delegates (the Republican equivalent of “super delegates”).

Volatility in the race decreases. Mr. Romney holds a stable if not overwhelming lead in national polls. There may be a point or two at which Mr. Romney loses a state unexpectedly, but this is not accompanied by a pronounced decline in his national poll ratings.

Meanwhile, some swing voters grow impatient with Mr. Gingrich, especially as his path to the nomination becomes more mathematically implausible. Some of them begin to support Mr. Romney just to get the contest over with.

Anyway you look at it, we’re in for four more months–at least!–of campaigning for the Republican nomination for the Presidency.

[New York Times] [Washington Post]

Newt Gingrich and the Art of Not Answering Questions

Mr. Dough Boy was not in full form last night. Not, unless that is, you realized just how doughy and soft  his brand of conservative is. Rather, he spent the night looking sour and dour.

And who is Mr. Dough Boy? None other than the only Speaker of the US House of Representatives to ever resign in disgrace, Newt Gingrich.

Let’s stop for a minute, though. We’ll come back to the debate in a minute. Why are we calling him “Doughboy?” I mean, other than that he brought in $25,000 a month while “consulting” Freddie Mac (others might call that lobbying on behalf of…) and because he looks like a Doughboy?

Perhaps we should be calling him the comeback kid, instead. There was a time when he was almost done, when his candidacy was written off, when he went on a cruise to Greece with wife #3 and 13 of his 15 fundraising chairs resign in disgust. Yeah. Less than a year ago, that was.

And yet he has come back, outlasted  Michelle Bachmann (who beat back Tim Pawlenty‘s campaign), Herman Cain, Rick Perry, Jon Huntsman, and all of the naysayers and talking heads that wrote off his campaign for the Presidency. He still isn’t saying anything that would make sense to anyone thinks about it longer than it takes to say “fundamentally,” “let me be clear,” or “we need dramatic change.”  (As Ann Coulter has noted, what he says makes sense for about three secondsif you are actually paying attention to the sense of the words coming out of his mouth).

Which brings me back to the debate last night. Not only did Newt never really get his game off the ground, but without the audience cheering on snooty one liners, he never really got his populism groove on.

I lost track of how many times Newt opted to avoid responding to the question, and I don’t just mean that he redirected. I mean he completely avoided. For example: sugar subsidies (because, why not? Who ever thinks about sugar subsidies except for beet farmers and the anti-subsidy lobby?):

ADAM SMITH (one of three moderators and political editor at “The Tampa Bay Times): Speaker Gingrich, in Iowa you were a big supporter of ethanol subsidies. Here in Florida, sugar is a very important industry, and it`s subsidized, as well, with import restrictions, quotas. There`s a conservative movement to do away with these programs. In the case of sugar, critics say it — it adds billions of dollars to — to consumers` grocery bills every year. What would you do about that?

GINGRICH: Well, I pretty enthusiastically early in my career kept trying to figure out how to get away from the sugar subsidy. And I found out one of — one of the fascinating things about America, which was that cane sugar hides behind beet sugar. And there are just too many beet sugar districts in the United States. It`s an amazing side story about how interest groups operate.

In an ideal world, you would have an open market. And that`s — I think that would be a better future and, frankly, one where cane sugar would still make a lot of money. But it`s very hard to imagine how you`re going to get there. I spent a lot of time trying to reform agriculture when I was speaker. And I would say it was one of the two or three hardest things to try to do because the — the capacity of the agricultural groups to defend themselves is pretty amazing.

Look through that. I’ll  buy you a Big Mac if you can find what Newt would, as the question asked, do about sugar subsidies.

In fact, he did not answer. He said it was too hard to change. Remember, this is the guy who wants to affect dramatic change in Washington.

When he’s not answering questions, he’s distorting history. This from a guy who has a Ph.D. in history and loves to tell opponents that they are getting their history wrong (compared to him, at least).

Exhibit 1 of distorting history came in the first five minutes.

BRIAN WILLIAMS: And about your problems, your departure from the speakership in the `90s, what`s the case you make to the American people and voters in Republican primary contests about how you`ve changed, Mr. Speaker?

GINGRICH: Well, first of all, the case I make is that, when I was speaker, we had four consecutive balanced budgets, the only time in your lifetime, Brian, that we`ve had four consecutive balanced budgets. Most people think that`s good.

Not only did Gingrich  not answer the question about how he’s changed since he left Congress in disgrace for ethics violations, he also lied about his record.

  • FACT: the first two years of Newt Gingrich’s Speakership–1996 and 1997–ran deficits by deficits. Two years of his Speakership–1998 and 1999–saw balanced budgets. The last two years of the balanced budget that he’s referring to–2000 and 2001– happened AFTER he left Congress. But, you know, why let the facts get in the way of a good debate?

But let’s get back to the misdirection and the unwillingness to answer the questions. Accused by Mitt Romney of leaving Congress, and the Speaker’s gavel, in disgrace, his response was his typical non-response:  “LIAR!”

GINGRICH: Well, look, I`m not going to spend the evening trying to chase Governor Romney`s misinformation. We`ll have a site at Newt.org by tomorrow morning. We`ll list everything — he just said at least four things that are false. I don`t want to waste the time on them. I think the American public deserve a discussion about how to beat Barack Obama, the American public deserves a discussion of what we would do about the economy. And I just think this is the worst kind of trivial politics.

This from the guy who’s been attacking Mitt Romney for being a successful businessman.

"Mwah-ah, ha, ha! I have fooled them all!"

I’m not sure who’s keeping track, but I couldn’t count four things in what Mitt Romney said that were false. In fact, Newt did resign in disgrace after an ethics investigation convinced his leadership team that he had become a liability to the work of Congress. From Wikipedia (because I’m not THAT energetic about original source research, and if you are, be my guest):

Eighty-four ethics charges were filed against Gingrich during his term as Speaker, all but one of which were eventually dropped.[66] After an extensive investigation and negotiation by the bipartisan House Ethics Committee, Gingrich was reprimanded and fined $300,000 by an overwhelming 395-28 House vote, with both Republicans and Democrats speaking in favor of those sanctions. It was the first time in the history of the House that a Speaker was disciplined for an ethics violation.[67][68]

The last three charges were dropped because although it was found that he had violated a House rule in the past, there was no evidence that Gingrich was still violating it at the time of the investigation.[66] The one charge not dropped was a charge of claiming tax-exempt status for a college course run for political purposes. In addition, the House Ethics Committee concluded that inaccurate information supplied to investigators represented “intentional or … reckless” disregard of House rules.[69]

Ouch. As if that weren’t bad enough, who needs enemies when you are making enemies of your friends as fast as Gingrich did in the aftermath of his ethics scandals?

In the summer of 1997 several House Republicans attempted to replace him as Speaker, claiming Gingrich’s public image was a liability. The attempted “coup” began July 9 with a meeting of Republican conference chairman John Boehner of Ohio and Republican leadership chairman Bill Paxon of New York. According to their plan, House Majority Leader Dick ArmeyHouse Majority Whip Tom DeLay, Boehner and Paxon were to present Gingrich with an ultimatum: resign, or be voted out. However, Armey balked at the proposal to make Paxon the new Speaker, and told his chief of staff to warn Gingrich about the attempted coup.[72]

On July 11, Gingrich met with senior Republican leadership to assess the situation. He explained that under no circumstance would he step down. If he was voted out, there would be a new election for Speaker, which would allow for the possibility that Democrats—along with dissenting Republicans—would vote in Dick Gephardt as Speaker. On July 16, Paxon offered to resign his post, feeling that he had not handled the situation correctly, as the only member of the leadership who had been appointed to his position—by Gingrich—instead of elected.[73]

If “under no circumstances would he step down”  does not say “selfish” as much as using your daughters from your first wife to convince everyone your second wife is lying about your third wife, then I don’t know what does.

[blackbirdpie url="https://twitter.com/#!/DKinnamon/status/161944198319312896"]

Click the link. You know you want to. Who ever says they are vastly superior to others? Out-loud?

Beyond that, the debate was pretty wonkish, and I fell asleep during the last five minutes. Literally.

APROPOS: State of the Union is tonight. Will you be watching?

[Daily Caller] [Mass Live][Debate Transcript] [Outside the Beltway] [The Hill]

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Family Values, Newt Gingrich Style

For those media types who still want to jettison a closed primary and open a primary to anyone, let me present Exhibit A for why open primaries give bad results:

Newt Gingrich. He’s proof that a body of voters can choose the candidate least in line with his party and with more likelihood of getting in a “snooty” remark about the President than winning a general election.

Besides, how do we respect a man whose definition of “family values” includes trotting out his daughters to hide a lie about his infidelity?

APROPOS: At least three people in America not on Newt’s payroll are sanguine about his victory, but only two of them share his last name.

(Not a real copy of the Washington Post)